The Asian Development Bank (ADB) envisions a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty in the region. Despite the region's many successes, it remains home to a large share of the world's poor: 263 million living on less than $1.90 a day and 1.1 billion on less than $3.20 a day. Show
ADB assists its members, and partners, by providing loans, technical assistance, grants, and equity investments to promote social and economic development. ADB maximizes the development impact of its assistance by facilitating policy dialogues, providing advisory services, and mobilizing financial resources through cofinancing operations that tap official, commercial, and export credit sources. Despite progress in prioritizing population aging in development banks’ operations, research, and strategies, interviewees and roundtable participants noted that significant barriers remain to fully integrating aging into development work. Limited finances and capacity require trade-offs between different development challenges, which—combined with the prevalence of ageist narratives, a lack of buy-in from leaders and decision-makers, and gaps in data on the topic—can lead to aging being deprioritized. Discrimination and ageism discourage adequate and proactive preparation for population aging, by perpetuating narratives that older adults are burdensomeParticipants in expert roundtables and research interviews agreed that ageism and negative stereotypes about older adults are a major barrier to investment in preparation for aging, particularly in countries where the demographic transition has not yet begun, and where resources are limited. Unconscious biases can perpetuate the narrative that older adults are simply a burden on their families, communities, and wider society, and that investment in programs that support older people—such as non-contributory pensions, long-term care, or accessible infrastructure—is therefore a significant cost with no potential for return. Additionally, while the COVID-19 pandemic has in many communities led to a renewed awareness of the quality of life and challenges facing older adults, many interviewees and roundtable participants felt that it had also contributed to the existing stereotypes of older people as frail and burdensome. As Justin Derbyshire, CEO of HelpAge International, noted in a research interview with FP Analytics, “Ageism has increased in the last three years, and that’s dangerous both for older people and for society.” In low- and middle-income countries in particular, government officials in charge of budgeting and liaising with financers may feel that work on aging diverts policy planning and funding, which is in short supply, from issues such as youth unemployment and education, creating a trade-off between supporting youth or older adults. Ageism may also dilute the strength of aging-related activities that are undertaken. FP Analytics’ exploration of project databases at each development bank found that while each bank was undertaking a significant number of projects implicitly linked to aging—focusing on “vulnerable people,” pensions, COVID-19 and health care, in particular—a much smaller proportion explicitly named population aging or older adults as the focus of their work. At the IDB, for example, FP Analytics identified 244 projects that could encompass aging, just 12 percent of which included a significant mention of the issue itself. At the World Bank, just 6 percent of its 224 relevant projects mentioned aging or older adults specifically. Preparation for population aging is at risk of being neglected or actively deprioritized as a result, as decision-makers focus their attentions on challenges that are perceived to have a greater return on investment. Such misperceptions have clear costs: in 2018, for example, the U.S. economy lost an estimated $850 billion as a result of age discrimination, and by 2050 this loss could increase to $3.9 trillion. In complex institutions with many competing interests and priorities, population aging can be overlooked as a future problem, not a current challenge to addressThe size and scope of multilateral development banks position them well as key actors in furthering human and physical capital agendas. However, the banks’ complex structures can also lead to siloing and a lack of awareness of the interests, priorities, and output of other teams. There is a risk that work will be duplicated, expending unnecessary resources, but also that interesting and impactful work—whether in the form of research and data analysis, or promising strategies and development projects—can get lost or forgotten. The World Bank’s internal evaluation of Support for Aging Countries, for example, noted that analytical reports on the state of aging and preparation for aging in specific countries are not being operationalized in the creation of new country partnership frameworks for those countries. This creates a disconnect between knowledge generation and effective action. Interviewees and roundtable participants similarly noted the difficulty in communicating effectively across large, complex institutions. Beyond the challenge of effective communication and information-sharing, the wide mandate and scope of the work of multilateral development banks leads to competing interests and priorities that require compromise. A mandate to reduce poverty and support economic development encompasses a wide scope of operations and activities, of which support for older adults and preparation of population aging are just two of many. As Jon Blondal, Head of Budgeting and Public Management at the OECD, noted in an interview with FP Analytics, “You can’t really say the strategy on aging is more important than all other strategies...if you have a multitude of strategies for all areas, they have to be reconciled.” This reconciliation process can lead to preparation for population aging being deprioritized, particularly as historically both development banks and national governments have chosen to prioritize the development of physical over human capital. Gaps and inconsistencies in data collection create barriers to effective communication internally and with member and client countriesMultilateral development banks and their client countries develop strategic work and financial plans in partnership, and these partnership strategies and frameworks can influence strategic decisions within the banks. The domestic priorities of member countries are therefore of great importance to the question of which development challenges receive precedence in resource allocation. Interviewees and roundtable participants noted that the prioritization of aging by a large or influential client country could lead to its adoption as a key priority of a partner development bank. In the case of China, for example, a domestic emphasis on preparing health and social care systems for advanced population aging has contributed to the integration of aging into the Asian Development Bank’s long-term institutional strategy, and the strategies of its sectoral teams. Ongoing projects developing integrated and long-term care systems in China bring together the ADB’s urban development, social protection, and health teams, among others, promoting a cross-sectoral approach that reflects the Bank’s prioritization of aging in its Strategy 2030. However, the reverse is also the case: Lack of interest in population aging by member countries can result in the topic being deprioritized by development finance institutions. Teams and individuals not specifically focused on aging—both within development banks and their counterparts in national governments—may not be aware of the co-benefits of much preparation for population aging, leading them to dismiss its relevance when setting development strategies. Interviewees at the African Development Bank (AfDB) and Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) noted this phenomenon within their own institutions, despite the fact that teams and member countries at both Banks are working on aging-related challenges. Additionally, member countries may not be aware of aging work already underway—the World Bank’s independent evaluation identifies this as a major barrier to effective support for aging countries. Clear, traceable data and easily replicable evidence could support the prioritization of population aging, but , particularly in low-income countries, often prevent even the establishment of a baseline understanding of the conditions and needs of older adults today and in the future. Where data can be, and is, collected, it often obscures the specific realities of older adults, as a result of data practices such as the use of household data—which can flatten the inequalities that exist within households—or a perception that older adults are not affected by, or relevant to, certain phenomena such as gender-based violence. As a senior World Bank expert reflected in an interview with FP Analytics, “Your data is your speaker. It speaks on your behalf, but sometimes we really don’t have the level of robustness we would like to see. Sometimes the data is so limited that you can do very little with it. Data is a challenge, it’s a hurdle, but it’s also an opportunity.” Without closing basic data gaps and identifying compelling evidence and stories that will capture the imagination of key decision-makers, stakeholders in effective preparation for population aging are unable to communicate the urgency and impact of their agenda. PART 2A multi-pronged approach can bring together a variety of stakeholders to mainstream an aging lens in research, project operations, and strategyPopulation aging is a demographic inevitability. Even extremely young countries, such as Chad and Niger, where the median ages are 16 and 15 years, respectively, are aging while they experience a significant youth population bulge. Multilateral development banks therefore have a key role to play in financing and supporting preparation for population aging in countries and regions where income and GDP remain low. Mainstreaming the importance of this issue—a key pillar of the 2002 Madrid International Plan of Action on Ageing (MIPAA), the first global action plan for building an age-friendly society—and pressing for greater prioritization of preparation for population aging are processes that will be most effective when all stakeholders in healthy and sustainable aging work collaboratively. Not only do individuals and teams working within multilateral development banks on aging issues have a key role to play, but their allies in institutional leadership, member countries, the private sector, and other development-focused organizations can also assist in the process. Individuals and teams working on aging within multilateral development banks can socialize the impacts and urgency of population aging and identify areas for fruitful collaborationResearchers, practitioners, and champions of support for older adults within multilateral development banks are central to the prioritization and integration of preparation for population aging into the operations and strategies of their institutions. Identifying intersections and shared interests with other development priorities, encouraging collaboration with stakeholders external to their institutions, and engaging in clear and compelling communication regarding the urgency and necessity of aging work can help to mainstream awareness of the issue throughout development banks, and foster enabling conditions for a strategic approach. Those working on aging are well-positioned to identify intersections and overlaps with other pressing development priorities, which could lead to cross-sectoral collaborationWhile older adults and aging populations have certain unique characteristics and specific needs that are best addressed through targeted interventions, systems and infrastructure that are age-friendly or age-ready have universal benefits. Within health care, social care, education, gender equality, and infrastructure research and work, there are numerous overlaps with aging work that provide clear opportunities for cross-sectoral collaboration. Teams and individuals working on aging within development banks are well-placed to identify and capitalize on those intersections, as they are often most aware that aging work confers co-benefits on the wider society. Interviewees and roundtable participants repeatedly identified overlaps with the work being undertaken by their colleagues and expressed a desire to integrate aging work more closely with work on other development challenges. Gustavo DeMarco, Lead Economist and Global Lead for Pensions, Social Insurance, Disability, and Aging at the World Bank, highlighted the potential benefits of working in a large, multisectoral institution: “One of the advantages of the World Bank is that we’re big. The size matters—sometimes it’s a burden because we’re more bureaucratic than smaller organizations. But we have the capacity to bring together people working on the aging agenda from different angles.” Focusing on human capital development acknowledges that interventions taken throughout the life-cycle can have a long-lasting impact, including by creating systems capable of supporting aging populations. Teams and individuals addressing labor, health, and aging, among others, can collaborate on research and projects to take a whole-of-life and whole-of-society approach to well-being that inherently supports healthier, more prosperous older populations. Focusing on human capital development acknowledges that interventions taken throughout the lifecycle can have a long-lasting impact, including by creating systems capable of supporting aging populations. Addressing early childhood health and education, creating robust social and health care systems, and providing opportunities for development throughout the lifecycle therefore not only encourage greater economic growth but also create new generations of older adults who are healthier, more educated, and better cared-for than their predecessors. An approach such as this—that emphasizes healthy longevity or human capital development—can therefore provide new opportunities for collaboration between sectoral teams, and can build age-friendly and age-ready policies and systems as standard, by adopting universal design principles. These principles emphasize broad accessibility and usability of systems, services, and infrastructure, reflecting the shared needs of many distinct groups. Accessible, sustainably funded, well-maintained systems and infrastructure can therefore be age-ready, benefiting communities and societies that have not yet begun to age significantly, while being in place to support future aged societies. Planned and ongoing work at all the multilateral development banks analyzed in this report could lend itself to a similar approach and strategic framing, at the encouragement of bank leadership and internal and external stakeholders in aging. The African Development Bank (AfDB), for example, is primarily focused on building sustainable systems and infrastructure in under-resourced countries and regions. The Bank’s work developing robust and accessible health care systems can include preparation for population aging by strengthening non-communicable disease (NCD) prevention, increasing access to primary care, and improving maternal and infant care. Improving health and well-being throughout the lifecycle will then lead to healthier older adults, with greater functional ability and less reliance on health and social care systems, but it is vital that already-aging populations not be neglected as a result. Individuals and teams at multilateral development banks, along with their allies and partners, can promote a whole-of-life, healthy longevity approach that prepare societies for population aging as part of a broader development agenda. Similarly, researchers at the World Bank have identified clear areas for age-friendly work in urban design and infrastructure development, which would make transport and other systems more accessible not only to older adults but also to people with disabilities, parents with young children, and even tourists. Pursuing partnerships with Member States that are planning for population aging can help to establish practical knowledge, compelling evidence and data, and replicable projects and interventionsAs noted above, member countries can influence the level of interest in a particular development challenge. A government’s prioritization of aging in domestic policy and in work with development partners can send a message to the leadership of financial institutions that the issue warrants attention. Masato Okumura, a Development, Innovation, and Strategy Specialist at the IDB Lab, focusing on the silver economy, for instance, highlighted the example of Uruguay, one of the in Latin America and the Caribbean, and in recent years a key driver and partner in the IDB’s aging work. The country recently jointly hosted a workshop with the IDB Group, bringing together various stakeholders and actors working on population aging in the region to discuss concerns, priorities, and approaches to preparing for demographic transition. Uruguay’s interest in this topic is reflected in the number of projects it has undertaken with the IDB relating to aging—four since 2015. This interest is now being reflected in the IDB’s updates to its institutional strategy, which have increasingly emphasized the urgency of addressing aging. Other countries proactively addressing aging in partnership with multilateral development banks through multiple projects include: Argentina, Chile, and Brazil with the IDB; China and India with the ADB; Georgia with the EBRD; Kenya with the AfDB; and Ukraine with the World Bank.  Building the case for human capital developmentWorking closely with client countries on aging-related projects also creates a repository of relevant data, frameworks, and projects that can potentially be replicated in different countries. The World Bank’s Human Capital Initiative, for example, is currently trialing operations and data collection and analytics methods in three archetypical countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America—Sierra Leone, India, and Colombia—to create replicable approaches that can be easily adopted elsewhere. Demonstrating the effectiveness of certain approaches to population aging—in this case, promoting whole-of-society health and well-being from early childhood to old age—and creating proven practices that can be adapted by country context will help to socialize this work across the banks, and to other member countries. Mainstreaming this work internally may involve active communication through institutional channels. Interviewees from the World Bank, for example, described their use of the Bank’s regular training and education seminars, aimed at internal staff, to communicate the findings and successes of their work. As more teams begin to discuss and implement successful approaches, they can then be brought to the attention of decision-makers and integrated into future institutional strategy. Increased collaboration with Member States can also be a conduit for creating robust and useful data on the cost-effectiveness of advanced preparation for aging, a gap that many interviewees and roundtable experts noted often created challenges in effective communication with client governments. In particular, they called for the creation of metrics demonstrating the return on investment of preparation for population aging or, alternatively, the costs of inaction, to be socialized throughout client governments and within development institutions, which may be wary of investments that have the potential for short-term fiscal tension, despite their medium- and long-term payoff. Interviewees working at the World Bank, for example, described their use of the Bank’s regular training and education seminars, aimed at internal staff, to communicate the findings and successes of their work focused on healthy longevity. As Gisela Garcia, Evaluation Officer in the Human Development and Economic Management Unit, Internal Evaluation Group, World Bank, and co-author of the World Bank’s recent evaluation of Support to Aging Countries, noted in an interview, “Let’s show why [aging work] is important, not just because it’s the right thing to do, but because it makes sense to do so.” Conducting regular research and data analysis on target countries can ensure that operations and strategies to prepare for aging are sensitive to country-specific demographic and economic contexts and needsBuilding a body of quantitative and qualitative data and evidence, and keeping a record of successful projects, can assist aging-focused teams to mainstream and prioritize preparation for population aging strategically throughout the multilateral development banks where they work. However, development banks’ member countries all vary, and there is no one-size-fits-all approach to preparation for population aging that can simply be applied to all low- and middle-income countries. Understanding the unique demographic, socio-economic, and cultural contexts in which aging takes place across countries and regions will be key to creating effective strategies and projects for implementation. This includes an awareness of the differing pace and timelines of aging. Collaboration among aging experts, research teams, and country teams to produce regular, in-depth reports analyzing the state of aging and the impact of ongoing preparation efforts, will assist in the creation of context-specific projects and technical assistance. Member States guide development priorities through their domestic agendas, driving budgetary and operational decisions at development banksMember and client countries of multilateral development banks are among the most influential actors in the development eco-system. Member States decide on development priorities based on domestic policy and strategy, and take the lead in crafting Country Partnership Strategies with development finance partners, usually on a three- to five-year timeline. As a result, member countries play a major role in influencing the strategies and development priorities of multilateral development banks. At the IDB, for example, where the institutional strategy and vision is reviewed and updated every five years, internal country teams and representatives from member country governments are consulted and heavily involved in the review process. At other banks, interviewees described a gradual mainstreaming process, whereby increased interest in a particular topic by member countries often leads to greater discussion and prioritization of the topic within the bank, whether or not this is then reflected in official strategic documents. At the World Bank, for example, a senior specialist and human capital expert, described his team’s approach to socializing their work. “It’s a very decentralized organization, where decisions are mostly taken at country level, then regional, and then elevated and global. So, you need to build this bottom-up interest in the topic . . . for the long-term stuff, you need to build coalitions from within to push the agenda forward.” Donor member countries—which provide funds for development projects but do not usually receive them—can also influence the issues on which money is spent, as has been the case at the ADB, which receives funds from countries like Japan and Korea, where population aging is among the most advanced in the world. As a result of this prominent position, stakeholders focused on aging within member country governments can play an important role in prioritizing the issue and encouraging its consideration by multilateral development banks and other development partners. By identifying counterparts and allies within the development banks, these individuals can communicate the importance of preparation for population aging, and the social and fiscal benefits of a proactive approach, both to their own ministry of finance—usually the direct liaison with development banks—and to relevant decision-makers within the banks themselves. As part of this, stakeholders in member country governments—which may include ministries of health, social protection, or specific teams working on aging—can undertake and engage with research on the impacts of aging within their country and disseminate that research and evidence among their colleagues to encourage integration into plans, policies, and programs. They can also work to build public support for preparation for population aging by socializing research and evidence in the media and working closely with NGOs and civil society organizations with an aging focus. In Japan, for example, the Ministry of Finance has highlighted the risk that population aging poses to economic prosperity due to dropping labor force participation, a concern it raised when hosting the 2018 G20 meetings, in order to increase the attention paid to this issue. Leadership of multilateral development banks set goals and strategic direction and can encourage consideration of aging in cross-sectoral workEffective prioritization of population aging as an urgent development challenge, one that is addressed strategically throughout each development bank, will require the support and buy-in of the top leadership as well as strategic decision-makers within various divisions and units. While interviewees and roundtable participants noted the difficulty—indeed, the undesirability—of compelling entire organizations to take an identical approach to development work, bank leadership can encourage sectoral and country teams to consider certain issues and integrate specific development goals into their work. The leadership and strategic decision-makers of multilateral development banks can therefore play a significant role in the prioritization of population aging across the development ecosystem. Leaders at multilateral development banks ultimately set strategy, direction, and agendas, thereby playing a key role to encourage collaboration across teams for greater impactThere are several approaches that bank leadership could take to encourage the application of a longevity lens by teams and sectors within their institutions, which are currently being used in relation to other development challenges, such as gender equality and climate change. While far from a panacea, there are important examples and lessons to draw on and apply in order to improve a sustained focus on, and prioritization of, population aging. All five banks included in this analysis have integrated a gender-lens into their operations, including by creating gender-focused impact assessments to be deployed during project design, and highlighting gender as a cross-cutting issue to encourage cross-sectoral and intersectional collaboration. Similarly, the banks have all highlighted climate change as a key challenge to be addressed as part of achieving the SDGs. The World Bank, for example, has worked with other development institutions to create a framework for greenhouse gas emission accounting in infrastructure projects, with the intention of curtailing development-related climate impacts. The framework acknowledges that development interventions with positive intentions can, and often do, have negative impacts on local or global society, as do gender equality frameworks such as the ADB’s gender mainstreaming guidelines. An integrated approach to aging work by leadership of development banks could also acknowledge the potential negative impact of development interventions—or lack of intervention—on current and future older populations and encourage the creation of projects that minimize or reverse these impacts. Frameworks and guidelines of this kind may be available soon: at the IDB, for example, Masato Okumura, a specialist with the IDB Lab, shared that older adults have been explicitly identified as a vulnerable group in need of consideration as part of project design impact assessments. Mainstreaming aging throughout development banks could also result from leadership’s encouragement of a whole-of-society and whole-of-life approach to health, well-being, education, and work. Bank leadership can play a key role in socializing the impacts of this approach and encouraging cross-sectoral collaboration among teams working on different aspects of human capital development. This could facilitate a holistic approach and institution-wide prioritization of population aging throughout the development banks. Multilateral development banks can lead by example, by prioritizing public and easily accessible data on their operationsBank leadership can also play an active role in facilitating the collection, analysis, and dissemination of clear and accessible data, particularly data on Bank-supported projects. During data collection and analysis for this report, for example, FP Analytics’ researchers encountered numerous challenges in attempting to gain a clear and full picture of the extent of recent and ongoing projects relating to aging and older adults. Development bank project databases available online were frequently unavailable due to maintenance, and search and filter processes lacked certain functionality, such as the ability to filter projects by year of approval. (For more information on barriers to data collection, please see Appendix 1.) Standardizing and increasing the functionality of Bank project databases would enable researchers and media to more easily understand and follow the work that is ongoing on various topics. This would enable easier identification of gaps in Bank activities, which external stakeholders and partners could then target for future work. External stakeholders socialize research and evidence for proactive preparation for aging, and demonstrate the issue’s economic and social relevanceBeyond the primary relationship between multilateral development banks and their loan-receiving member countries, an ecosystem of different actors focused on aging have a role to play in mainstreaming the importance of preparation for population aging and in encouraging its prioritization by those two key actors. Civil society, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), the private sector, and other development institutions can work in partnership with, and independently of, aging-focused teams in multilateral development banks and governments with developing economies to promote the prioritization of aging. The private sector prioritizes older adults as consumers and can support them to access productive, reliable workThe private sector interacts with older adults in two major ways, which make it an important partner in preparation for population aging. Globally, older adults represent a key consumer group for goods and services, particularly as life expectancies increase and more individuals seek long-term care and adaptive and accessible retrofitting services. The so-called “silver” or “longevity” economy represents an opportunity for businesses and entrepreneurs in emerging markets and developing economies to expand their consumer base and profits, contributing to GDP growth and encouraging foreign direct investment. Research by the IDB, for example, projects that between the years of 2015 and 2030, people over the age of 60 will be the source of around 30 percent of all growth in consumption in cities in the LAC region, and it predicts that this share will continue to grow. The IDB identifies opportunities in the region for the housing sector, care economy, health industry, and transport sector, among others, and has found that the silver economy in LAC is dominated by private-sector enterprises specifically, representing nearly 75 percent of entities offering services to older adults. As the majority of silver economy enterprises in the region operate solely within their country of origin, collaboration between the private sector and multilateral development banks represents a major opportunity for both economic growth and sustainable preparation for population aging. Collaborating with local entrepreneurs to grow the silver economyIn light of the opportunities presented, the IDB Lab, which works with the private sector to identify innovative solutions to development challenges, has recently increased its work on the silver economy—economic activities that serve the needs and meet the demands of older adults. Working in partnership with colleagues on the IDB’s Social Protection and Health team, the IDB Lab has created a popular “silver economy challenge”—in which small enterprises responded to a request for proposals, and nine winning projects were chosen to receive seed funding—and has begun working with local and international businesses on new projects. Similar opportunities for regional development banks to work closely with the private sector—both small, local enterprises, and large multinationals—could generate innovative policies and interventions to prepare for population aging and support today’s older populations. In addition to serving aging populations as a consumer group, the private sector employs increasing numbers of older adults. Growth in the labor force participation of older adults is due to both choice and necessity, as improvements in life expectancy have extended individuals’ post-work lifetimes. In low- and middle-income countries, low pension coverage and a lack of savings can require people to work well into their old age, particularly in mixed-generation households, where older adults remain the breadwinners, while others may choose to work as a means of remaining productive, independent, and engaged in community life. The International Labour Organization (ILO) estimates that in 2019, 28 percent of men and 13 percent of women aged over 65 participated in the labor force, and in low-income countries specifically, 56 percent of men and 33 percent of women did so. Improving older adults’ access to well-paid, fulfilling work has also been linked to economic progress and prosperity: In 2018, workers aged over 50 years contributed $8.3 trillion to the U.S. economy, equivalent to 40 percent of GDP, and it has been projected by UNDESA that in OECD countries, older adults who work could raise GDP per capita by 19 percent over the next thirty years. Development banks can therefore work closely with the private sector to improve workplace conditions for all segments of the labor force, including older adults, through technical assistance and capacity-building aimed at creating safe workplaces that are free from discrimination, and offering opportunities for skills development and re-skilling. The European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), for example, partners with corporations across Eastern Europe and Central Asia to implement skills training designed specifically for older adults and other marginalized groups, as part of its Economic Inclusion practice, and in line with its goal of supporting economic and digital transitions in middle-income countries. A project in partnership with grocery store chain Spar, in Poland, for example, provides its employees aged 50 and older—who represent one-third of its total workforce—with digital skills training and other age-sensitive accommodations such as flexibility in shift allocation. According to interviewees from the EBRD, this program has recently been expanded to include Ukrainian refugees, have crossed into Poland since the Russian invasion in February 2022, demonstrating the clear co-benefits of such an approach. Civil society and NGOs amplify the needs and views of older adults, identifying areas for new workCivil society organizations and NGOs play several key roles in mainstreaming and encouraging preparation for population aging in development banks. NGOs often act as implementing partners for development bank projects, and their localized expertise can be key to the creation of context-specific, relevant projects relating to aging. HelpAge, for example, has worked closely with development banks, including with the ADB in Vietnam, where it implements a long-term project creating inter-generational self-help clubs, to identify areas for project growth across the region. As NGO staff interact regularly with older adults in development bank member countries, they are well-placed to ascertain the needs of older and aging communities, and to amplify their voices and ensure their inclusion in project-planning processes. Civil society organizations similarly play a role in amplifying the voice of older adults and their advocates, to encourage the creation of impactful projects and policies, and they can equally assist in data collection from among their memberships. Interviewees working in development banks noted that civil society organizations, especially those that are local and community-led, often play a helpful role in publicizing relevant and useful research. Interviewees who are working in multilateral development banks have occasionally found that their own research gets increased attention within their institutions once it has been championed by a respected civil society organization. As advocates for specific groups and issues, including older adults and population aging, civil society organizations can also cultivate close relationships with, and facilitate exchange between, researchers, decision-makers, and donors at multilateral development banks to encourage greater consideration of, and interest in, their chosen causes. As respected third-party actors, civil society groups are well-placed to bring together aging experts and colleagues from the development community for convenings and collaboration. Non-financing development institutions fill data gaps and produce necessary research on population aging and its impactsThe landscape of international organizations, including those focused on economic development, poverty reduction, and quality of life, extends beyond the multilateral development banks analyzed in this report. Institutions such as the United Nations (UN) and its related bodies, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and other regional and global multilateral banks, such as the Islamic Development Bank and Council of Europe Bank, all have a role to play in preparing for and addressing population aging. Work on aging at these organizations can demonstrate the urgency of the issue and provide a model for mainstreaming aging work throughout multifaceted institutions. A recent study by the ILO has found that investing in longer parental leave, universal health care, and universal long-term care could generate 280 million jobs worldwide by the year 2030, and 299 million jobs by 2035, of which 233 million would likely be held by women. Development finance institutions can—similarly to the World Bank, ADB, IDB, AfDB, and EBRD—prioritize preparation for population aging in their conversations and project planning with loan-receiving countries and entities, creating momentum for the mainstreaming of aging work in other institutions. Non-financing organizations, such as UN agencies and the ILO, have equally important, complementary roles to play. Research and policy-focused institutions can help to close key gaps in understanding by undertaking and supporting data collection and analysis in countries with low data coverage, and generate innovative, impactful policy recommendations and infrastructure interventions to support older populations. A recent study by the ILO, for example, has found that investing in longer parental leave, universal health care, and universal long-term care could generate 280 million jobs worldwide by the year 2030, and 299 million jobs by 2035, of which 233 million would likely be held by women. Research of this kind demonstrates the clear co-benefits of investing in systems and interventions that protect and support older adults, and it can be a persuasive tool in encouraging greater spending on long-term care and health care, two areas often misperceived as delivering a poor return on investment. ConclusionLooking ahead to 2030 and beyondThe second demographic transition, from youth bulge to increased aging, will create new challenges for low- and middle-income countries that could threaten progress made toward the SDGs and other development goals thus far. However, proactive preparation for this eventuality may be the key to overcoming these challenges and harnessing the opportunities that can similarly arise. While aging work is underway, the World Bank, the AfDB, the ADB, the IDB, and the EBRD have the opportunity to pursue a more strategic and integrated approach to population aging by prioritizing the issue in their work with member countries, the private sector, NGOs, and other development-oriented institutions. Based on extensive interviews, roundtable convenings, and analysis of projects and strategy documents from all five banks, FP Analytics recommends that stakeholders that are engaged in proactive preparation for population aging consider the following approaches: For leadership of multilateral development banks:
For individuals and teams working in development banks:
For development institutions:
For member country governments:
For civil society and NGOs:
For the private sector:
Going forward, strategically aligning work on population aging across the development ecosystem, and sharing successful practices, could enable individuals, teams, and organizations impacted by, and responsible for, population aging to address this challenge more effectively and holistically. Through collaborative and strategic action, these stakeholders can encourage the prioritization of preparation for population aging within multilateral development banks, and mainstream conversations and actions addressing demographic change in the wider development community. Quantitative analysis methodologyDescriptive data regarding the status of projects relating to population aging and/or older adults was compiled through a review of the project databases of each of the five multilateral development banks (MDBs) of interest: the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the African Development Bank (AfDB), the World Bank (WB), and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). The project data was downloaded in bulk and filtered to display only projects approved, ongoing, or in the pipeline, since 2015, the start of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Based on an extensive review of literature, including publications by the MDBs, civil society organizations, and scholars, FP Analytics compiled a list of ten key search terms to identify relevant aging-related projects: “older”, “elder”, “senior”, “aging”/“ageing”, “silver”, “aged care”, “caregiver”, “retire”, “pension”, and “vulnerable”. The word “vulnerable” is often used as an umbrella term in projects that seem to affect older adults but do not explicitly specify the impact on them. For this reason, projects were categorized in a two-tiered system in which the first tier includes projects explicitly related to aging and older adults. Projects included in the first tier have descriptions or summaries containing one of the search terms from the following subset: “older”, “elder”, “senior”, “aging”/“ageing”, “silver”, “aged care”, or “retire”. If the words “caregiver”, “pension”, or “vulnerable” were used without one of the explicit aging key words alongside it, the project was classified as second tier. Keyword search is a common methodology for meta-analyses, and this report takes a cue from the World Bank Internal Evaluation on Support for Aging Countries, which acknowledges the significant overlap between work on population aging/older adults and work on vulnerable populations more broadly, by denoting a specific set of search terms related to aging. Projects were excluded from tier one or two if it was clear that the use of these three terms was in reference to broader regions or geographies generally, or specifically focused on a demographic group other than older adults. For example, projects that specified their target beneficiaries as exclusively youth and women were not included in tier one or tier two. Based on these strict criteria, fewer than 10 projects were identified for exclusion by the research team. In total, 14,969 projects were reviewed across the five banks, and 621 projects included in either the first- or second-tier sets analyzed as part of the research for this project. Keyword searches and data downloads were conducted between the beginning of July and the end of August 2022. Barriers to data collection included incomplete project descriptions, interrupted access to projects due to database maintenance and construction, and the absence of a universal tool for bulk download. While some banks had the option for bulk data download, often the resulting spreadsheets were missing crucial information, such as funding amounts, or excluded functional project hyperlinks, which hindered FP Analytics’ ability to confirm data reliability. For example, one bank had compiled all projects since 2005 into a publicly accessible spreadsheet, but it was incomplete for the years 2021 and 2022. Additionally, project descriptions were often outdated, incomplete, or mismatched. The FP Analytics research team manually reviewed project databases to supplement the spreadsheets with missing data.
Qualitative analysis methodologyThis report draws on information and insights shared by experts and practitioners working at each of the five development banks included in the scope of the project as well as other relevant individuals working within the wider aging ecosystem, such as civil society organizations. FP Analytics’ researchers conducted 25 one-on-one, in-depth, semi-structured interviews to better understand the perceptions, strategies, processes, and programs relevant to aging populations within the five banks. In addition, FP Analytics convened two carefully curated roundtable discussions held under Chatham House rules, with 16 participants from banks and other relevant organizations in academia, civil society, and international development. Interviewees and roundtable participants were identified through a combination of mapping relevant stakeholders based on desktop research and snowball sampling through peer-to-peer recommendations. Interviews were conducted between March and August 2022, over Zoom, due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. In total, accounting for overlap between interviews and roundtables, 32 individuals from development institutions, civil service and non-governmental organizations, academia, and international institutions contributed their insights to this report. This analysis was produced by FP Analytics, the independent research division of Foreign Policy. This report is made possible in part by the financial support of AARP. The opinions expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of our funders. FP Analytics would like to acknowledge and thank all those who participated in roundtables and interviews for their time, their contributions, and their candor. In accordance with the informed consent protocol for this project, participants’ personal information (such as names and institutional affiliations) have been anonymized except in instances where written permission was granted for attribution of responses. What is Vietnam economic world ranking?Economy of Vietnam. What is the world development index of Vietnam?HCMC – Vietnam has ascended eight places from 115th to 107th position in the latest Human Development Index (HDI) rankings, solidifying its position among developing countries with a high HDI. How has Vietnam progressed in the last 30 years?Economic reforms since the launch of Đổi Mới in 1986, coupled with beneficial global trends, have helped propel Vietnam from being one of the world's poorest nations to a middle-income economy in one generation. Between 2002 and 2022, GDP per capita increased 3.6 times, reaching almost US$3,700. Is Vietnam a fast developing country?Vietnam has been one of the region's fastest-growing economies, but the pace slowed this year due to weaker global demand, with the International Monetary Fund forecasting 2023 GDP growth would come in at 4.7%. |
